If family members are going to lose their medical insurance because it’s cheaper to pay the tax than provide health coverage, then obviously employers are going to look at ways to pay less tax as well. If employers decide to pay an eight percent tax to pickup the cost of the public option over providing benefits, they will also look at ways to reduce the eight percent tax, since it’s based on payroll.
There are situations that could arise depending on how Congress taxes employers. If the eight percent tax is based on full-time employees, employers could reduce the number of employees who work the minimum 28 hours and bring in more part timers to fill the void. In this model, more jobs would be created, but the people filling those jobs would be underemployed. The employer would reduce their eight percent payroll tax by lowering the amount of full-time employees.
Now if the tax is charged on both full-time and part-time employees, the employer would save from reducing the number of positions by giving full-time employees the responsibilities of the part-time employees by eliminating the part-time employees jobs. Now the number of unemployed rise from the lack of part time positions. Guess who this will hurt the worst? That’s right all those kids in college that chanted “yes we can” at the advice of a college professor without looking at the possible economics of placing Obama in office.
Really, it’s the American people who are going to lose. Most employers already know whether or not they are going to maintain their current benefits or switch to the public option (or co-op as some are calling it now) and save money. The ones who switch to the public options are looking to save money. They will also look at how to configure their staffs in order to pay the least amount of healthcare payroll taxes possible. You think 570,000 jobs lost last week looks bad now, just wait until this massive health insurance overhaul takes effect.